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KMID : 0379920000250020025
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Journal of The Korea Socity of Health Informatics and Statistics
2000 Volume.25 No. 2 p.25 ~ p.32
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The Prediction Model of the Number of Industrial Iajured Persons Using Transfer Function
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정호근/Chung, Ho Keun
이관형/강민구/윤용운/Yi, Kwan Hyung/Kang, Min Ku/Yun, Yong Woon
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Abstract
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this study is to see the transition and pattern of the industrial injured worker, and to develop the prediction model. The data of the study are based on the smaples from data-warehouse of Occupational Safety & Health Research Institute and are summed monthly from Jan 1986 to May 1999. This study data used data mart and Meta data from DW in KOSHA, and Monthly working days are subtracted from Monthly Statistics of Korea publiched by National Statistical Office. The data´s having been collected by this was. The prediction model of the injured worker in industry is designed by using a transfer function time series method after data preparing(i.e. sample, explore, modify) from DW and Data-Mining.
In the process of exploring the data, totally the rate of industrial injured workers reduced, and in the yearly circulation, in February and September the number is the lowest but in June, July, October and November the higher. The number of monthly average injured workers is 8709 (95% confidence interval: 8277, 9140).
From transfer function model, since Aug 1999 the industrial injured worker reduced rapidly in Dec 1999 and first period of 2000. But in second period of 2000 the number of the injured workers is increasing. To conclude, as the total economic situation is becoming better in 2000 than is 1999, its is supposed that the injured workers will increase more than the predictive injured workers because of the increase of production rate and labor force.
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KEYWORD
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